Wintek Corporation
Initiation
Underweight
2384.TW, 2384 TT
Reality check; we initiate with UW Price: NT$50.60
Price Target: NT$39.00
(目標價39元)
Initiating coverage with UW rating and Dec-11 PT of NT$39: Wintek’s
share price has outperformed all its peers in the past three months, but we
think the upside potential has now been fully captured in the price. Our
channel checks indicate that Apple’s iPad shipments will start to slow in
4Q10 to clear inventories for the second-generation iPad to be launched in
2Q11. Besides, we think large panel makers, including AUO and CMI
which have fully-fledged vertical integration capabilities, have begun to
chip away at Apple’s orders and pose a significant threat to Wintek. We
believe this is an ideal time to take profit in the shares.
• We expect Apple’s iPad shipments to take a breather, other tablets
could emerge: We expect Wintek’s revenue growth momentum to slow in
4Q10, primarily due to reduced shipment orders from Apple. We also
expect to see other tablet brands gather momentum in 4Q10 and 1Q11 until
a new version of iPad is launched. Wintek has relatively smaller exposure to
other major tablet PCs, as its revenue is heavily concentrated on Apple.
• Oversupply could become an issue in 2Q11: We believe aggressive
capacity expansion by touch panel suppliers will create a significant
supply/demand imbalance by 2Q11. More specifically, we expect 10-inch
equivalent touch panel capacity will be twice that of demand next year, and
three-inch equivalent capacity will be 125% of demand. We expect to see
more price competition and margin erosion, peaking in 2Q-3Q11. This trend
could coincide with a potential steep dip in Wintek’s FCF next year and a
significant rise in gearing on the balance sheet.
• Our Dec-11 PT of NT$39 implies c.20% potential downside from
current levels. Our price target is based on 13x 2011E earnings, which is
close to the median of the industry comps’ forward P/Es. Of note, Wintek’s
margins and ROE are at the lower range of touch panel makers, on our
estimates. A key upside risk to our PT is demand growth exceeding our
expectations.
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這就是承銷與研究單位共用研究員的後果
再遇到想瞬間竄紅的研究員